Publications

New York Paid Family Leave and Household Economic Security After Childbirth (forthcoming in Social Service Review) 

Economic insecurity often deepens after childbirth, as lost maternal earnings and rising childcare costs compound financial strain — pressures that limited access to paid leave only intensifies. State-provided paid family leave (PFL) can alleviate these burdens by supplementing household income and supporting maternal employment. This study examines the effects of New York's Paid Family Leave program (NY-PFL), introduced in 2018, on household poverty and income as measured by the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM). Using data from the 2015–2023 American

Community Survey (N = 584,978), I employ a triple-difference design comparing mothers of 1-year-olds to those with older children, in New York versus other states, before and after implementation. NY-PFL is associated with a 2-percentage-point reduction in poverty and a $2,450 increase in household resources among low-income mothers. These improvements are driven primarily by gains in maternal employment and earnings, which in turn reduce reliance on welfare cash assistance. Event study estimates indicate that these poverty reductions emerge in 2021–2022, coinciding with the program's full expansion of leave duration and wage replacement rates. However, the benefits are unevenly distributed: first-time mothers and non-citizen Asian and Hispanic mothers do not experience comparable gains. These findings highlight the role of paid family leave in reducing post-childbirth economic insecurity while underscoring its limited reach among some immigrant families.

Effects of the Expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit for Childless Young Adults on Material Wellbeing (with Katherine Michelmore, Natasha Pilkauskas, and Christopher Wimer, forthcoming in National Tax Journal; NBER working paper) 

In 2021, the U.S. Congress temporarily expanded the Earned Income Tax Credit for workers without a qualifying child (childless EITC), to help counteract the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on lower-wage working adults. This expansion roughly tripled the maximum benefits for qualifying filers and lowered the minimum age to claim the credit from 25 to 19, providing new benefits to low-income young adults. Using data from the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey and a difference-in-differences design, this study is among the first to examine the impact of the expanded childless EITC on young adults’ material hardship (food, housing, and expenses). We find that the temporary expansion led to a significant decrease in housing hardship among low-income, childless, young adults, and suggestive evidence that it also reduced food insufficiency and difficulty with expenses. Overall our findings show that the temporary expansion of the childless EITC helped reduce material hardship among young adults.

Spending Response to the Expanded Child Tax Credit: An Analysis Using United States Consumer Expenditure Survey Data (with Jake Schild, Sophie Collyer, Thesia Garner, Neeraj Kaushal, Jane Waldfogel, and Christopher Wimer; Reveiw of Income and Wealth) 

The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 substantially expanded the Child Tax Credit (CTC). Early studies documented that the expanded CTC reduced poverty and food insufficiency, but there is little research on its impact on household spending, particularly child-related spending. We use data from the Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey and a difference-in-difference design to examine whether the expanded CTC increased spending overall, in major categories, and on specific items related to children's education and development. Our findings indicate that households used the CTC payments to enhance the well-being of both their children and the entire household. For each $100 of CTC payment, our models show that households spent $44, mainly on housing ($28) and food ($12). When examining child-related spending specifically—which overlaps with broader spending categories—households spent $16 per $100. We also find that the increase in child-related spending was larger for Asian-, Black-, and Hispanic-headed households than for White-headed households.

Impact of the Expanded Child Tax Credit and Its Expiration on Adult Psychological Well-being (with Eunho Cha and Stacie Tao; Social Science & Medicine) 

The expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) under the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act provided temporary relief to families with children through monthly payments from July through December 2021, offering a unique opportunity to examine the impact of a near-universal cash transfer on adult psychological well-being in the United States. We use the Household Pulse Survey to analyze the CTC expansion to examine the expiration of the expanded CTC to investigate the effects of the expanded CTC and its expiration on psychological distress of adults in households with children and its differential effects by gender, education, marital status, and race and ethnicity (N = 167,772). We employ a difference-in-difference methodology by leveraging the policy-induced variation in the additional credits that households are eligible for. Our results indicate that the expanded CTC led to a significant reduction in the percentage of having at least mild symptoms of psychological distress in the overall sample, especially among female, single, married, and Hispanic adults. We find that more adults experienced moderate to severe psychological distress after the monthly CTC payments ended. 

Work in Progress

SNAP Emergency Allotments and Heterogeneous Outcomes by Household Characteristics and Income Status: Food Assistance and Food Security after COVID-19 (with Robert P. Hartley and Neeraj Kaushal)

The COVID-19 pandemic increased food insecurity among low-income U.S. families, prompting the introduction of SNAP Emergency Allotment (EA) waivers in March 2020 that temporarily raised benefits to the maximum level. Using 2017–2022 CPS data and a difference-in-differences design exploiting variation in state EA implementation, this study examines effects on SNAP participation and food security among households below 185% of the federal poverty level. SNAP EA increased participation (3.8 pp), benefit receipt duration, and monthly benefits, and reduced food insecurity by 3.8 pp. Effects were concentrated among near-poor households (50–99% FPL), while no significant improvements were observed for deep-poverty households or larger families. The findings suggest that SNAP benefit expansions improved food security for many low-income households, but left the most disadvantaged groups with limited gains.

State-Level Child Tax Credits Reduce Material Hardship in the Absence of a Federal Universal Child Benefit (with Sophie Collyer, Margot Jackson, Ryan Vinh, and Christopher Wimer)

The United States is the only advanced democracy without a universal child benefit. Following the expiration of the temporarily expanded federal Child Tax Credit in 2021, states have increasingly adopted their own CTCs, varying substantially in generosity and eligibility. We exploit this policy variation to estimate the causal effect of state CTC generosity on material hardship among families with children. Using the 2023–2024 Household Pulse Survey (N=57,023), we employ a simulated instrument that assigns eligible state CTC benefits based solely on legislated policy parameters, independent of households' endogenous economic decisions. We find that a $1,000 increase in state CTC generosity significantly reduces child food hardship by 2.8 percentage points and expense hardship by 2.6 percentage points. These effects are concentrated entirely among renters—who face material hardship at roughly twice the rate of homeowners—for whom child food hardship falls by 8.1 percentage points and housing hardship by 5.3 percentage points; effects among homeowners are indistinguishable from zero. Results demonstrate that fully refundable state CTCs can meaningfully reduce material hardship among the most economically vulnerable families with children.